Investing in new products and technologies can be a high stakes gamble
You can't know for certain that you will win, but we can calculate the odds that your bet will pay off. We can evaluate how much is an opportunity worth taking into account the risks and the potential upsides.
Using average projected revenue is a convenient shortcut, but can be misleading. Averages estimate what is likely to happen on an infinite number of trials. When making the big bet In for your business you have only one chance to get it right. We can create simulation models that quantify the chances that your bet will pay off. .
We can provide you with the information you need to make good bets
Whether it is a half a million or several billion dollars at stake, there is a maximum bet that makes sense for any level of potential return. Exceed that investment and in the long run your investments will fail to be profitable. Market Modelers will calculate the chances, the risks and the rewards of any development, equity, or acquisition investment.
Base case NPVs and IRRs are limited views of gambles that are multidimensional. If you want an investment view that integrates upside and downside potentials into your decision metrics - call us.